Thursday, April 26, 2012

I've convinced myself that this has worked

Which is basically a recipe for disaster.

Before we get into how my head is completely f*cking with me (because you know, its my *head* and I couldn't possibly control it), I think that it's important that we review the numbers:
- National SART stats for likelihood of live birth per cycle for women 41-42 (with previous ART cycle and prev. live birth): 14.5%
-My age: 41 years and 50 weeks
- Number of embryos I transferred: 3, all 8-celled
- Days post-transfer: 7
- Days remaining until test: 5

What I'd really like to know are the cumulative live birth rates for my age cohort, but I can't seem to find that.  If anyone has them, feel free to share!

So while several of the comments raise the possibility of triplets (and here I say Heaven forfend!), I think that I am much more likely to have zero babies than any number greater than zero.  Because I am old.  And my eggs? They are even older.

But instead of understanding these numbers and internalizing the very low probability of success this cycle, instead I am letting myself open the door to a bit of foolish optimism. It's absurd, and violates my belief in always assuming the worst and then being pleasantly surprised.  Because at heart, though I am cynical, and bitchy and dark, I am an optimist and I just can't really believe that 15% means just that -- a 1 in 6 shot.

So why have I let my head screw with me (see above for how my head is totally on its own here, and pretty much outside of my influence)?  Because I am crampy.  Not in a "I'm getting my period" sort of way, but in a "something is afoot down there, there are all sorts of pulling and twinge-y things occurring."  So that has me totally convinced that I am beating the odds and am actually going to get pregnant with a take home baby this cycle.  I know that's ridiculous, but there you go.

Also, because we've never put back nearly this many embryos before (we are usually eSET people, but at my age we decided after much discussion that it was a waste of time to take that approach), my head equates more embryos in with much higher chance of pregnancy.  In short, I believe that it now HAS to work.

I'm heading for a huge, tremendous disappointment.


  1. I like twinging things occurring! I like optimism!

    Soooo...does that mean there might be early POASing around your house? Just asking...

  2. Well, there IS a greater likelihood of pregnancy with greater number of embryos. But that 15% doesn't tell you about number of embryos transferred, just that that's the rate at your age.

    The waiting SUCKS, I know. Just pee on a stick and put us out of our misery :) Hugs.

    1. Alas, the average # of embryos transferred is 3.1. So there I am -- smack on their means....

  3. Ugh, isn't the 2WW a mind trip?!

    I could never help thinking that I'd be in that "lucky" 15% either. I'm not sure that being pessimistic would really make a BFN easier to take, though.

    FX for you!

  4. Busy uterus is a great sign. I am hoping that you are out-jinxing yourself on this one. Holding on here with you until that beta.

  5. Hoping so much that you really have beat the odds. Thinking of you and your embryos.

  6. Three embryos is better odds than just one that I've had each transfer. I wish you the best of luck.

  7. I can totally sympathize with wanting to prepare for heartbreak. This is such a huge deal. Immeasurably large. You've been through so much, had to deal with so many shitty outcomes.'s not at all ridiculous to feel hope, and even optimism. You do have a good shot this time, and a busy ute...well, nobody could remain cool in the face of that symptom... Be kind to yourself, and snuggle that baby to pass the time.

  8. I think your odds are much better than 1 in 6, given the number of 8-celled embryos you transferred. That's the problem with statistics around ART. They seldom show nuance. It means that you'd be put in the same category as someone who had one very stalled embryo put back. It just doesn't compute.

    I also prefer to expect the worst (even as I'm secretly hoping for the best). And I know how very hard it is to just BE optimistic, to allow yourself the luxury. But I think you have a right to optimism. And I'm crossing everything (very optimistically) for you.

  9. PS: read back about the 3.1 average but STILL think your odds are better given the quality of embryos. Hoping for you.

  10. Waiting does indeed suck, big time. I hope you are able to occupy yourself with other things, but I know how hard that is. I second the question from above - are you going to POAS? I'm a glutton for punishment and always gave in to that temptation...
    Here's hoping you end up on the good side of statistics!

  11. I hope you get a pleasant suprise, I really feel you on the "I may look like pessimist but really I think I'll beat the odds" it's so hard to pretend that your hopes aren't way up. 3 eight cell embies are very nice, and a busy ute's a good sign too!

  12. Of course you have hope! That's what keeps us going. :)

    Here hoping for you!